---
title: "ANES 2024: Comparing Synthetic and Later Human… | Minds"
canonical_url: "https://getminds.ai/research/anes-2024-synthetic-survey-validation"
last_updated: "2026-09-09T20:52:54.741Z"
meta:
  description: "An ANES pre/post-election comparison tests 300 matched people on 28 later answers, with separate results for response format and participant grounding."
  "og:description": "An ANES pre/post-election comparison tests 300 matched people on 28 later answers, with separate results for response format and participant grounding."
  "og:title": "ANES 2024: Comparing Synthetic and Later Human… | Minds"
  "twitter:description": "An ANES pre/post-election comparison tests 300 matched people on 28 later answers, with separate results for response format and participant grounding."
  "twitter:title": "ANES 2024: Comparing Synthetic and Later Human… | Minds"
---

Minds

September 5, 2026·Validation·Minds Team # **ANES 2024: Comparing Synthetic and Later Human Answers** An ANES pre/post-election comparison tests 300 matched people on 28 later answers, with separate results for response format and participant grounding. The ANES 2024 comparison reached 91.67% aggregate approximation, or 8.33 percentage points of mean distribution error, using retrieved-profile probability answers. Its clearest measured improvement came from probability elicitation: generic probability answers reduced error by 12.47 points relative to generic forced choices. Unlike a comparison that reconstructs answers already supplied to a model, this design used earlier pre-election respondent evidence and evaluated later held-out post-election answers. ## The longitudinal test The sample contained 300 matched respondents and 28 later items. Human targets were withheld from runtime generation and candidates were sealed before evaluation. Conditions separated a generic forced answer, generic probabilities, demographic probabilities, and probabilities informed by retrieved profile evidence. Earlier evidence can provide context about a respondent, but it is not the same as knowing their later answer. The temporal separation makes this a useful test of whether prior information travels to a subsequent questionnaire. ## Distribution results_### **Mean item absolute error** Reported results for this study. The table and discussion retain the study scope, baselines and uncertainty._- Generic forced choice**22.782**