A recent simulation by Minds shows that 72 percent of German homeowners are willing to actively adjust their electricity consumption, provided an annual savings of at least 150 euros is achieved. These results were validated with data from the Statistisches Bundesamt and illustrate that automated control solutions are the key to broad adoption of dynamic tariffs.
72%
Willingness to shift load for savings
64%
Demand for automated control
31%
Concern over unpredictable price spikes
Based on a simulated Audience of 950 respondent. Benchmark agreement varies by audience, question, grounding, and reference study.
Audience composition
Age Structure
1
25-3428%
2
35-4945%
3
50-6527%
Household Equipment
1
Home appliances only35%
2
With EV / wallbox40%
3
With heat pump & storage25%
vzbv-Forsa survey on dynamic electricity tariffs
Neon Study: Savings potential of dynamic tariffs
Finanztip Guide: Dynamic electricity tariffs
The survey is based on Minds' Target Audience Simulation Platform, a professional research infrastructure for precisely mapping consumer behavior. Unlike traditional, time-consuming survey panels, Minds enables the generation of up to 10,000+ responses in under an hour. The simulation is based on a three-tier model that guarantees the highest data integrity and validity.
At the first level, data anchoring (Level 01), real data sources such as CRM systems, internal surveys, or traditional market studies are used to calibrate the model. No persona is created from pure assumptions. At the second level, the simulation model (Level 02), the platform draws on deep consumer knowledge, demographic anchoring, and robust behavioral modeling. At the third level, validation (Level 03), the results are continuously benchmarked against real responses, panel data, and established reference benchmarks such as the Statistisches Bundesamt, Eurostat, or Kantar. An average alignment of 85% to 95% with physical panels is achieved.
The entire infrastructure is hosted on secure EU servers and is 100% GDPR-compliant, as no personal data of real participants is processed. The cost of such a simulation is a fraction of a traditional panel, as time-consuming recruitment processes and participant compensation are eliminated.
The legal obligation for energy providers to offer dynamic electricity tariffs starting in 2025 meets a German consumer market that is still highly divided regarding smart meters and flexible electricity use. While the technical infrastructure is slowly becoming widespread due to the accelerated smart meter rollout, consumer awareness is lagging behind. Minds' simulation shows that the willingness to shift loads, meaning the deliberate shifting of electricity-intensive activities to times of low wholesale electricity prices, depends heavily on household structure and the associated loss of convenience.
For the average German household, electricity is a utility that runs in the background. The need to actively engage with fluctuating prices disrupts established daily routines. Consumers are heavily occupied by family and professional obligations in their everyday lives. The idea of manually programming washing machines, dryers, or dishwashers to benefit from cheap nighttime or midday electricity prices is perceived by many as an additional cognitive burden.
The psychological barrier is therefore not a general rejection of the energy transition, but rather a perceived loss of control and the daily effort required. Without noticeable simplification or automation, the theoretical savings potential evaporates in the stress of daily life. The simulation highlights that consumers draw a clear line between controllable major appliances and everyday household devices. While charging an electric car or operating a heat pump is accepted as flexible, the use of household appliances remains tightly coupled to rigid daily schedules.
A central aspect of the Minds simulation was determining the financial thresholds at which German smart meter owners are willing to adjust their daily routines. The results show a clear discrepancy between different consumer segments. Households that already have controllable major appliances such as a wallbox, a heat pump, or home storage have a significantly lower tolerance threshold. For this group, the financial incentive at which active load shifting is considered is around 100 to 150 euros in savings per year.
In contrast, households whose flexibility is limited to traditional home appliances demand significantly higher financial incentives. Since the savings potential of running a washing machine or dishwasher is in the single-digit cent range per use, the manual effort is perceived as disproportionately high. In this segment, the threshold for behavioral change is over 250 euros per year. Since this amount is virtually impossible to achieve solely by shifting small appliances, the willingness to switch in this segment remains low without additional incentives.
T
Tobias Weber, 42, StuttgartHomeowner & IT Project Manager
I want to charge my electric car when electricity is cheap. But I don't want to manually check the app every evening and start the charging process myself. It has to be fully automated.
This insight is of strategic importance for energy providers. An undifferentiated marketing campaign that merely promotes abstract savings potential will remain ineffective for the majority of consumers. Targeting must be specifically linked to the ownership of major appliances and highlight the concrete financial benefits in connection with the existing infrastructure.
The Minds simulation makes it unmistakably clear that manual load shifting is not a viable model for the mass market. 64 percent of simulated consumers stated that automated control via a Home Energy Management System (HEMS) is a mandatory prerequisite for using a dynamic tariff. Consumers are not willing to consult electricity price apps daily and start their appliances manually.
Automation shifts the burden of decision-making from humans to machines. An intelligent system that receives current wholesale electricity prices and automatically activates the electric car or heat pump during the cheapest hours eliminates the psychological barrier of sacrificing convenience. The consumer benefits from low prices without having to adjust their daily schedule.
S
Sabine Fischer, 38, HamburgMother & Bank Clerk
A dynamic tariff sounds tempting, but I need financial protection. If prices skyrocket in winter, I don't want to suddenly pay three times as much. A price cap is a must for me.
For energy providers, this means a paradigm shift in their product portfolio. Simply selling electricity tariffs will no longer be enough to differentiate in the competitive landscape. Successful providers must offer integrated solutions consisting of the dynamic tariff, the appropriate hardware (such as smart meters and HEMS), and intelligent control software. Partnerships with manufacturers of home technology and automation solutions will therefore become a critical success factor for gaining market share.
In addition to the financial opportunities, the introduction of dynamic tariffs also carries significant risks from the consumer's perspective. Linking the retail price to the volatile wholesale electricity prices of the EPEX Spot leads to noticeable uncertainty. 31 percent of respondents expressed concern that unpredictable price spikes, caused for example by extreme weather events or geopolitical crises, could lead to uncontrollable cost increases.
This need for security is deeply anchored in the German consumer psyche. For decades, German electricity customers were accustomed to fixed, predictable tariffs. Switching to a model where the price fluctuates hourly is perceived by many as speculative and risky. To lower this barrier, energy providers must develop innovative tariff models that minimize the risk for the end customer.
D
Dr. Andreas Meyer, 51, MünchenPhysicist & Homeowner
Running the washing machine at night might save me twenty euros a year, but it disrupts my sleep. Without controllable major appliances like a heat pump, the effort is hardly worth it for me in everyday life.
One promising solution that met with high approval in the simulation is tariffs with integrated price caps. These models guarantee the consumer that the electricity price will not exceed a certain upper limit, even during extreme market developments. While such protections reduce the maximum savings potential during cheap phases, they provide the necessary security to make switching easier for risk-averse consumers. The simulation shows that the availability of such safety nets can increase the willingness to adopt across the general population many times over.
The results of the Minds simulation provide valuable insights for energy providers in the product development and market positioning phases. To accelerate the adoption of dynamic tariffs in the German market, providers should focus on the following strategic priorities:
First, target group segmentation must be precisely aligned with the existing household infrastructure. Campaigns should primarily target owners of electric cars, heat pumps, and home storage systems, as these offer the greatest savings potential and the highest willingness to switch.
Second, communication should shift focus away from purely manual load shifting. Instead, the convenience and efficiency of automated systems must be highlighted. The tariff should be positioned as part of an intelligent, self-optimizing ecosystem.
Third, tariffs must be equipped with flexible safety mechanisms such as price caps to address widespread fears of price spikes. The ability to limit risk is a decisive criterion for many consumers when choosing a provider.
With Minds' Target Audience Simulation, energy providers can test these and other hypotheses in the shortest possible time and without the risk of expensive missteps. The platform makes it possible to mirror different tariff structures, communication claims, and product bundles directly against virtual representations of the target audience. This drastically shortens development cycles and secures market success even before the first physical panel is recruited.
Do you want to find out how your target audience reacts to new dynamic tariff models and which communication strategies achieve the highest conversion rates? Leverage the precise, data-driven insights of our simulation platform and optimize your go-to-market strategy in under an hour. We cordially invite you to book a live demo of the Minds simulation and experience the future of market research firsthand.
How reliable are the simulation results from Minds compared to traditional panels?
Minds' Target Audience Simulation achieves an average alignment of 85% to 95% with physical panels regarding preferences and objection structures. For specific questions and precisely anchored segments, the alignment can even reach up to 100%, representing a valid alternative to lengthy market studies.
How quickly does Minds deliver results for complex consumer surveys?
While traditional market studies often require several weeks for recruitment and analysis, Minds delivers deep, data-driven insights in under an hour. The simulations are hosted entirely on secure EU servers and are 100% GDPR-compliant, as no personal data of real participants is processed.
What advantages does the Minds simulation offer over traditional market research methods?
Minds makes it possible to generate up to 10,000+ responses per simulation without the high costs and time commitment of physical participant recruitment. The costs are a fraction of a traditional panel, as there are no recruitment fees per participant, and validation is performed directly against established national statistics.
How does this simulation help energy providers market dynamic tariffs?
The simulation highlights consumers' exact financial thresholds and psychological barriers. Energy providers in the middle-of-funnel (mofu) stage can use these insights to optimally align their tariff models, communication strategies, and automation features with the target audience before launching expensive field tests.
About Minds
Minds is an AI research lab building synthetic focus groups and studies. It helps go-to-market and product teams understand their target audiences in minutes, not months.
