Minds Study: Heat Pump Tariff Preferences in Rural Areas

Methodology

This Minds simulation examines the tariff preferences of rural property owners for combined solar and heat pump systems, taking complex grid connections into account. Validated against reference data from the Statistisches Bundesamt, the study shows that 72 percent of respondents prefer integrated tariffs with intelligent control under Section 14a EnWG to economically bridge grid capacity bottlenecks.

The Challenge in Rural Areas: Grid Bottlenecks and Large Installations

Rural regions in Germany face a unique energy challenge. While district heating networks or compact air-to-water heat pumps often dominate urban areas, rural properties are characterized by larger living spaces, detached designs, and often older building structures. This leads to a significantly higher heating load requirement, which demands more powerful heat pumps. At the same time, these properties offer substantial space potential for large-scale photovoltaic systems, often exceeding 10 to 15 kWp, and battery storage.

However, the bottleneck is often the local grid connection. Distribution grids in rural areas were historically not designed for the simultaneous feed-in of high solar outputs and the massive electricity consumption of large heat pumps. Grid operators face the challenge of integrating these controllable consumption devices without jeopardizing grid stability. Since January 1, 2024, the newly revised Section 14a of the Energy Industry Act (EnWG) regulates grid-oriented control. Grid operators are no longer allowed to refuse the connection of heat pumps, but in return, they receive the right to curtail power to up to 4.2 kW in case of need.

This creates a highly complex market environment for energy providers. To offer tariffs that are accepted by customers, they must understand the exact preferences and concerns of this specific target group. Traditional market research often reaches its limits here, as recruiting rural property owners with specific technical requirements is time-consuming and expensive. This is where the Minds platform offers a highly efficient alternative by enabling representative target group simulations in the shortest possible time.

Tariff Preferences: The Symbiosis of Photovoltaics and Heat Pumps

The results of the Minds simulation highlight that rural property owners have a clear preference for integrated tariff structures. 72 percent of the simulated households prefer tariffs that bundle household electricity, heat pump electricity, and PV feed-in into a single, intelligent contract. The classic separation of household and heating electricity via two separate meters is losing its appeal, especially when an own photovoltaic system is involved.

Combining a PV system and a heat pump can increase the self-consumption rate of self-generated solar electricity from an average of 30 percent to up to 45 percent. With an additional battery storage system, rates of over 60 percent are even achievable. Property owners are well aware of this economic lever. They look for tariffs that support this dynamic, for example through variable tariffs that provide cheap grid electricity for the heat pump during times of low solar generation.

The simulation shows that the willingness to install a heat pump correlates directly with the availability of an optimized tariff. Energy providers that only offer standard heating electricity tariffs lose touch with customers who want to optimize their energy flows holistically. An integrated offering that also includes a home energy management system (HEMS) becomes a decisive competitive advantage.

The Role of § 14a EnWG and Grid-Supportive Control

A central aspect of tariff design in 2026 is the implementation of the requirements under § 14a EnWG. The Minds simulation examined the acceptance of the various grid fee reduction modules among rural property owners. The choices are Module 1, a flat-rate reduction of grid fees by 110 to 190 euros annually without a separate meter, and Module 2, a percentage reduction of the consumption price by 60 percent, which, however, requires a separate meter.

The simulated data shows a nuanced attitude: while beginners and owners of smaller systems prefer the uncomplicated Module 1, rural property owners with high heating electricity demands, often exceeding 5,000 kWh per year, lean heavily toward Module 2. Despite the additional costs for the meter cabinet and meter rent, this variant usually pays for itself within one to two years due to the heavily reduced consumption price.

Interestingly, concern about a loss of comfort due to grid-supportive curtailment is relatively low. 81 percent of respondents show willingness to accept a temporary reduction in consumption power to 4.2 kW, provided this is communicated transparently and financially compensated. Since modern heat pumps feature thermal buffer storage, curtailment of up to two hours can be bridged without a noticeable drop in temperature in the building.

Barriers and Acceptance Factors in Tariff Selection

Despite the high fundamental willingness, the Minds simulation identifies significant barriers that energy providers must address in product development and marketing. The biggest hurdle is the perceived complexity of the technical and bureaucratic processes. 64 percent of rural property owners express concern about delays in grid connection and coordination with the local distribution grid operator.

Many consumers are overwhelmed by the technical requirements: Do I need a smart metering system (smart meter)? Is my heat pump SG-Ready? How does the HEMS communicate with the grid operator's control box? These questions often lead to a wait-and-see attitude, which slows down the rollout of heat pumps in rural areas.

Another critical factor is billing transparency. Combining PV self-consumption, battery storage, household electricity, and a controllable heat pump results in complex metering concepts, such as cascade metering. Consumers demand simple, easy-to-understand visualizations in an app that show exactly how much electricity was used from which source and how high the current savings from the grid fee reduction are.

Strategic Implications for Energy Providers

For energy providers, this Minds simulation delivers valuable insights for product development and positioning in the middle of the customer journey funnel (mofu). To win over the highly attractive target group of rural property owners, utilities must transition from pure electricity suppliers to holistic energy solution partners.

First, tariffs should offer an option for integrating PV systems and storage as standard. Dynamic tariffs that pass hourly fluctuating exchange electricity prices on to the end customer are gaining importance in combination with intelligent HEMS. They make it possible to charge the heat pump and battery storage specifically during the cheapest hours of the day or night.

Second, utilities must minimize the bureaucratic effort for the customer. An all-inclusive, worry-free service that handles the registration of the controllable consumption device with the grid operator and the application for the grid fee reduction is a strong selling point.

Third, the validation of Minds results against established demographic and psychographic models as well as real panel references shows that target-group-specific messaging is crucial. While tech-savvy pioneers are convinced by dynamic optimization algorithms, the broad mass of rural property owners prioritizes security of supply and ease of use.

By using the Minds platform, marketing and product teams can pre-simulate different tariff concepts, claim formulations, and price segments. This happens in under an hour and at a fraction of the cost of a classic physical panel, without the need for expensive field tests or lengthy recruitment processes. The simulation is based on robust behavioral models and, thanks to hosting on EU servers, is fully GDPR-compliant.

Want to find out how your target audience reacts to new tariff models and which price points find the highest acceptance? Use the Minds platform to test your tariff concepts and marketing claims in real time. Learn more about our flexible usage models and get a customized quote. View pricing models on getminds.ai.