Minds Study: Why Heating Installers Avoid Heat Pumps

Methodology

A recent target audience simulation on the Minds platform shows that 72 percent of German heating installers avoid new heat pump brands due to complex manufacturer training and a lack of administrative support for BAFA funding applications. Validated by official data from the Statistisches Bundesamt on the sluggish expansion of heat pumps in existing buildings, this study highlights the deep bureaucratic hurdles in the German HVAC trade.

The Conflict in the Boiler Room: Why Proven Gas Boilers Dominate

The German heating market is in a historic transformation phase. While in the new construction segment, according to the latest data from the Statistisches Bundesamt for 2025, around 73.6 percent of completed residential buildings are already primarily equipped with heat pumps, existing buildings present a far greater hurdle. Here, it is not standardized blueprints but individual advice from local tradespeople that determines the choice of heating system. Heating installers (sanitation, heating, and air conditioning, or HVAC for short) act as crucial gatekeepers. If a business does not actively recommend a specific technology or brand, it will not be installed for the end customer.

However, the reality in German HVAC businesses shows clear reluctance toward new, specialized heat pump manufacturers. When in doubt, many companies prefer to fall back on the proven gas and oil boilers of their long-standing industry partners. The reasons for this are rarely technical. Rather, it is the established, smooth processes, the rapid availability of spare parts, and the familiar administrative environment that tip the scales. For a trade business, any deviation from the standard process represents a financial risk. New heat pump lines not only require a deep understanding of refrigeration technology but also bring a massive bureaucratic and training overhead that many businesses cannot or do not want to handle in their stressful daily routines.

The Hurdle of Manufacturer Training: Theory vs. Practice on the Construction Site

A central point of friction revealed by the Minds simulation is the perceived complexity and time commitment of manufacturer training programs. To professionally plan, install, and commission a heat pump, many manufacturers require lengthy certification processes. These are often oriented toward demanding standards such as the VDI 4645 guideline or the specifications of the Federal Funding for the Heat Pump Training Program (BAW). What makes sense in theory to avoid installation errors proves to be a massive roadblock in practice.

In times of acute skilled labor shortages, few businesses can afford to send their best installers to theoretical training for several days. The loss of earnings on the construction site weighs heavier than the long-term prospect of having a new brand in the portfolio. In addition, many installers complain that the training offered by new market entrants is often too academic and detached from reality. While established gas brand partners have offered practical, modular, and often on-site short training sessions for decades, new players frequently rely on centralized, multi-day block seminars. This deters smaller businesses in particular, which make up the majority of the German trade sector.

The Administrative Bottleneck: BAFA Funding Applications as Margin Killers

In addition to purely technical qualifications, the administrative processing of state subsidies represents the greatest obstacle in the sales process. In Germany, installing a heat pump in an existing building is economically unfeasible for most homeowners without the massive state subsidies from the Bundesamt für Wirtschaft und Ausfuhrkontrolle (BAFA) or the Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW). Customers therefore naturally expect the heating installer to not only provide technical advice but also guide them safely through the subsidy jungle.

For the tradesperson, however, this expectation quickly becomes a nightmare. The application processes are highly bureaucratic, error-prone, and subject to constant legislative changes. A single formal error in the application can lead to the subsidy being rejected. In such a case, the installer faces an unsatisfied customer and, in the worst-case scenario, legal disputes. Established heating manufacturers have recognized this problem and offer their partner businesses comprehensive support: from pre-filled application forms and specialized software tools to a complete, manufacturer-side subsidy service that takes all the paperwork off the installer's hands. In contrast, new heat pump providers often leave businesses alone with this administrative burden, which nips the active sales of their devices in the bud.

The Strategic Role of Target Audience Simulation

To understand and systematically dismantle these deep-seated reservations and barriers in the trade, manufacturers must precisely analyze the installers' perspective. This is where the Minds platform comes in. Instead of conducting expensive, lengthy, and often inaccurate physical surveys or focus groups, marketing, insights, and innovation teams can use Minds to build representative target audience simulations. The platform makes it possible to create AI personas from detailed profiles, industry reports, or their own research notes, simulating a realistic representation of the German HVAC trade.

The simulated research results from Minds are directional and context-dependent. They allow manufacturers to test new training concepts, partner programs, or communication campaigns in rapid, iterative loops before physical resources are invested. By calibrating against established demographic and psychographic models as well as official industry statistics, Minds delivers valuable qualitative insights into the pain points of installers. Since the simulations do not require the time and financial expense of traditional participant recruitment, teams can continuously adapt and optimize their strategies. Furthermore, specific requirements for data processing and deployment can be flexibly evaluated for each workspace to meet the internal security guidelines of the manufacturers.

Action Recommendations for Heat Pump Manufacturers

Based on the insights from the Minds simulation, concrete strategic measures can be derived for heat pump manufacturers to drastically reduce onboarding friction for installers:

First, training programs should be radically modularized. Instead of multi-day mandatory in-person attendance, manufacturers should rely on hybrid learning models. Short, practice-focused online modules for theory, combined with targeted on-the-job coaching directly at the installer's first construction site, minimize downtime for the business. This also aligns with the modern approach of BAW funding for coaching.

Second, establishing an integrated subsidy service is essential. Manufacturers that relieve installers of the administrative burden of BAFA and KfW applications secure a massive competitive advantage. A digital assistant or a dedicated support team that checks eligibility and prepares documents removes the liability risk for the tradesperson and makes selling a heat pump as easy as selling a classic gas boiler.

Third, manufacturers should continuously test their partner programs and communication claims. With Minds, marketing teams can simulate in real time how different messages or incentives resonate with various business types. This makes it possible to determine precisely whether a small family business responds better to administrative support or financial bonuses.

Want to find out how your target audience responds to your onboarding processes and training offerings? Use the Minds platform to gain deep insights into the mindset of German heating installers and optimize your partner strategy based on data.

Experience the future of target audience research and start a free simulation on Minds today to test your B2B positioning with maximum precision.

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