Synthetic SME Panels Match Flash Eurobarometer 549 at 87.1%
We asked 300 synthetic SME decision-makers in six EU countries the questions of an official EU survey. Their answers matched the real results at 87.1% approximation.
We asked 300 synthetic SME decision-makers the same questions as the European Commission's Flash Eurobarometer 549 on resource efficiency and green markets: 50 each in Germany, France, Poland, Spain, Sweden and Italy. Then we compared their answers with the published survey results.
The synthetic answers matched the real survey at 87.1% approximation.
What 87.1% approximation means
Approximation shows how closely the synthetic answers match the real ones. At 100%, every answer would be chosen by exactly the same share of respondents as in the survey. At 87.1%, the synthetic share for an answer was on average 12.94 percentage points away from the real share.
The score covers the five main questions of the survey, with all six countries counted equally: current resource-efficiency actions, planned actions, support needed, climate strategy, and green products or services. Renewable energy was asked as a supplementary question.
A resampling check puts the score between 85.6% and 87.4%.
Approximation by question
Approximation by question
Six countries counted equally. 100% means the synthetic answers match the survey exactly.
- Current resource-efficiency actions87.4%
- Planned resource-efficiency actions85.4%
- Support needed85.8%
- Climate strategy86.3%
- Green products or services90.5%
- Renewable energy (supplementary)91.9%
| Question | Synthetic panel | Average of the other five countries |
|---|---|---|
| Current resource-efficiency actions | 87.4% | 91.7% |
| Planned resource-efficiency actions | 85.4% | 89.9% |
| Support needed | 85.8% | 95.1% |
| Climate strategy | 86.3% | 93.7% |
| Green products or services | 90.5% | 96.4% |
| Renewable energy (supplementary) | 91.9% | 93.0% |
The last column is a reference point. We predicted each country with the average of the real results from the other five countries. That reference scores 93.3% overall, but it needs real survey data from those countries. The synthetic panel needed none.
Approximation by country
Approximation by country
Five main questions per country. 100% means the synthetic answers match the survey exactly.
- Poland89.1%
- Italy88.4%
- France87.4%
- Sweden87.0%
- Germany86.2%
- Spain84.3%
| Country | Synthetic panel | Average of the other five countries |
|---|---|---|
| Poland | 89.1% | 92.5% |
| Italy | 88.4% | 93.0% |
| France | 87.4% | 95.0% |
| Sweden | 87.0% | 95.4% |
| Germany | 86.2% | 94.4% |
| Spain | 84.3% | 90.0% |
The synthetic panels reach between 84.3% and 89.1% in every country.
Where the synthetic panels are strong, and where they are not
Strong: they put answers in the right order. The actions that most real firms take, such as saving energy and reducing waste, are also the top actions in the synthetic panels.
Weaker: they are too optimistic about plans and too keen on subsidies.
Climate strategy and green products
Share of SMEs across the six countries, weighted by the number of SMEs per country. Survey = Flash Eurobarometer 549.
- Has a climate strategy · Survey22.2%
- Has a climate strategy · Synthetic11.5%
- Plans a climate strategy · Survey17.7%
- Plans a climate strategy · Synthetic44.1%
- Offers green products · Survey32.3%
- Offers green products · Synthetic16.8%
| Indicator | Source | Share of SMEs |
|---|---|---|
| Has a climate strategy | Survey | 22.2% |
| Has a climate strategy | Synthetic panel | 11.5% |
| Plans a climate strategy | Survey | 17.7% |
| Plans a climate strategy | Synthetic panel | 44.1% |
| Offers green products or services | Survey | 32.3% |
| Offers green products or services | Synthetic panel | 16.8% |
In the synthetic panels, 44.1% plan a climate strategy, against 17.7% of real firms. For support, 64.0% ask for grants or subsidies, against 34.6% in the survey.
Weaker: countries look too similar.
How much countries differ
Average gap between the highest and the lowest country for each answer, across the six questions.
- Survey24.5
- Synthetic panels7.7
| Source | Average gap between countries |
|---|---|
| Survey | 24.5 pp |
| Synthetic panels | 7.7 pp |
Real countries differ a lot. For example, 73% of Spanish SMEs save water, against 35% in Germany. The synthetic panels show 29% and 26%. They capture about a third of the real differences between countries.
What this means for policy work
- Good for: a quick first read on which measures, barriers and support types matter to SMEs, and for testing questionnaire wording before fieldwork.
- Use with care: exact adoption rates, stated plans and demand for funding.
- Not a replacement for: national surveys, country rankings or country-specific policy decisions.
Limits
- The synthetic panels are not a random sample of real firms.
- They answered in English. The survey was run by phone in national languages.
- The survey results were public before this test and may be part of the language models' training data. This is not a blind test.
- The results describe June 2024, when the survey was run.
The overview of our survey replications compares this result with other public benchmarks. The validation checklist explains approximation in more detail, and the methodology describes how Minds audiences are built. The survey itself is published as Flash Eurobarometer 549.
