2026-09-05
ANES 2024: Comparing Synthetic and Later Human Answers
An ANES pre/post-election comparison tests 300 matched people on 28 later answers, with separate results for response format and participant grounding.
Research
Experiments, benchmarks, and technical papers from Minds Research Lab on synthetic respondents, persona-conditioned AI, evaluation methods, and the limits of simulated evidence.
2026-09-05
CES 2024: Survey Fit Across Multiple Question Forms
A CES comparison evaluates 300 matched respondents on 27 binary, ordinal and multiselect questions, separating aggregate fit from individual prediction.
2026-09-05
GSS 2024: Preserving Uncertainty Improves Survey Fit
A target-separated GSS pilot compares four response conditions across 360 people and 17 questions, separating probability elicitation from profile value.
2026-09-05
PISA 2022: Synthetic Survey Fit Across Five Countries
A five-country PISA comparison evaluates 600 students and ten held-out questions, with weighted distribution errors and explicit country and language limits.
2026-08-14
We Tested Synthetic Audiences Against Reality
What five public survey datasets reveal about synthetic audience accuracy, including a 301-Mind Gen Z production test, and where profile grounding helps.
2026-08-14
Can AI Recreate a Real Gen Z Food Survey? Minds Reached 93.99% Approximation
An outcome-blind validation compared 903 responses from 301 persistent Gen Z Minds with published UK Food Standards Agency survey distributions. Aggregate approximation reached 93.99%.
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